12 Apr Rate and See

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March 2026 Insights

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Rate and See

One month ago, the question facing most central banks was not whether to cut interest rates but how quickly. In Iran, Trump hoped for a “Venezuelan outcome”. However, that desired short and swift military operation has turned into a prolonged economic standoff. Four weeks later, the conflict rages on, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Potential inflationary effects of the closure are significant and far-reaching. No country is immune. The ripple effects have been swift; central banks that were pricing in cuts are now holding firm and discussing hikes.

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Following the disruption caused by the war and up until the end of March, the JSE All Share Index is down 11.3%, and the Rand has depreciated 6.3% against the Dollar, from 15.94 to 16.94. The mechanism is straightforward: a surging oil price raises input costs globally, triggering a risk-off rotation in which emerging market currencies like the Rand take the hit as capital flees to the safety of the Dollar. The High Street Balanced Prescient Fund, with its +90% Rand-hedge, is built precisely for this environment. As the Rand weakens, the Fund’s offshore and Rand-hedge exposure appreciates in Rand terms, cushioning the blow that unprotected portfolios absorb in full. The result: although down 3.8% since the war began on the 28th of February 2026 up to the end of March, the fund has delivered 2.0% alpha against all funds in our ASISA category. The risk-off mechanism worked similarly during quite a different disruption: the outbreak of COVID-19. During the COVID selloff (January–March 2020), the Rand depreciated 27.4% against the Dollar, from 14.00 to 17.84, and the High Street Balanced Prescient Fund delivered 9.6% alpha across the broader ASISA category. For South Africans saving for retirement, this is not a fortunate coincidence; it is the portfolio doing exactly what it was designed to do.

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Unless otherwise stated, all performance and statistical figures provided in this article have been pulled from Bloomberg by the High Street Asset Management Research Team on 4 April 2026 and all the images provided in this article have been sourced from FreePik and have been used in line with their Acceptable Use Policy. The contents of our newsletters are frequently sourced from or verified through our various product providers and other third parties. Although every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in the newsletter, it should not be construed as financial advice as defined in the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act. Links are provided to third-party websites for convenience only. High Street Asset Management (Pty) Ltd cannot accept responsibility and does not endorse any information contained on a third-party site. For our full disclaimer, please see: https://hsam.co.za/legal/.

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© High Street Asset Management (Pty) Ltd. All rights reserved | FSP No. 45210 | Legal Disclaimers

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